Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T03:30:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 03:30 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 03:50 UTC
Open price
$65,980.45
Close price
$66,125.00

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65980.450000 and closed at 66125.000000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.1
Opens
Jun 16 · 03:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 03:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 03:50 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 02:45 ↓ 03:00 ↑ 03:15 ↑ 03:30 ↑ — now 03:45 ↑ 04:00 ↓ 04:15 ↓ 04:30 ↓ 04:45 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 03:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T03:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 03:50:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
03:20:00
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.445 +5.5% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_40Q536YODN09HY0rwRWvqpr8
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 03:20:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 03:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.84%
Down 47.16%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66185.1155 sigma=208.5452 z=-1.7987 p_up=0.5284

Commitment hash
76d08c87e2679beacc116404e325b22605341f5d84f6d02c1a77d3cb9fd8ced1
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
03:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.519 -1.9% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_4BXNaeEbo16gCpXAwkOy0xjq
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 03:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 03:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.08%
Down 50.92%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.6267 edge=-0.0167 sigma_short=0.002124 sigma_long=0.001747 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4908

Commitment hash
db27285deaee55d1f22e4e75d3b86ddd15789b020e0789f67afa04bfdb5ea9a3
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
03:20:00
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.534 -3.4% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_apB6lzPrV3mgtXpNoXAeKd4v
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 03:20:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 03:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.33%
Down 51.67%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000281 sigma=0.001953 score=-0.6267 p_up=0.4833

Commitment hash
2a69ddfc582f5f12f7ed4f171c8f89af9cddd049667e51605a80e941b78607a0