Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T04:15:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 04:15 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 04:35 UTC
Open price
$66,150.77
Close price
$65,980.00

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66150.770000 and closed at 65980.000000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
50%
Difference from baseline
+0.2
Opens
Jun 16 · 04:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 04:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 04:35 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 03:30 ↑ 03:45 ↑ 04:00 ↓ 04:15 ↓ — now 04:30 ↓ 04:45 ↓ 05:00 ↑ 05:15 ↑ 05:30 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 04:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T04:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 04:35:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
04:05:00
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.489 +1.1% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_zq7L80nkoMp4iXjODEjaK1Zl
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 04:05:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 04:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.47%
Down 50.53%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000084 sigma=0.002037 score=-0.1790 p_up=0.4947

Commitment hash
94bdc09076edcb00683dfe447cde2984a4d850d47323a147facc6c73b53e09ba
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
04:05:01
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.496 +0.4% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_673nmr8ZwrGOhxkbV1ePEqxB
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 04:05:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 04:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.81%
Down 50.19%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.1790 edge=-0.0053 sigma_short=0.002366 sigma_long=0.001840 w=0.3500 p_up=0.4981

Commitment hash
16dafbb84ed343ed35e607072953e48f16284370f0a319915a5243253d16d16d
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
04:05:00
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.500 0.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_zgjx25nXwLnpHA9nDOd0yZq1
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 04:05:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 04:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.0%
Down 50.0%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66165.4250 sigma=211.5010 z=-0.0010 p_up=0.5000

Commitment hash
6490bf9a48186e524cb0307899dfec9b2c25d08e8bde6c4eb635d62e6a734162