Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T05:30:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 05:30 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 05:50 UTC
Open price
$66,076.01
Close price
$66,089.38

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66076.010000 and closed at 66089.380000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.3
Opens
Jun 16 · 05:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 05:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 05:50 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 04:45 ↓ 05:00 ↑ 05:15 ↑ 05:30 ↑ — now 05:45 ↓ 06:00 ↑ 06:15 ↑ 06:30 ↑ 06:45 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 05:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T05:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 05:50:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
05:20:02
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.484 +1.6% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_G7zbNOMWVvp7iEk7oE9P1vBd
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 05:20:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 05:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.82%
Down 49.18%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66085.2655 sigma=212.1567 z=-0.2793 p_up=0.5082

Commitment hash
8bae9fb1cef921de379bfe562447ae17c172c85672a2b6071f66eb5be1debde4
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
05:20:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.511 -1.1% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_BlAyv3kzDQm0tEyxDWqReg9n
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 05:20:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 05:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.43%
Down 50.57%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.3573 edge=-0.0103 sigma_short=0.001840 sigma_long=0.001928 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4943

Commitment hash
3159dedda15860a8005b8c5c77bffe2fed1f6258715e8ea566510064f09ad80d
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
05:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.521 -2.1% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_904kZMgdDE6gC2knoBnQaqEe
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 05:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 05:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.97%
Down 51.03%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000177 sigma=0.002155 score=-0.3573 p_up=0.4897

Commitment hash
276d0b17c7aad8ef26245ab84a4ad1181fe89a01cac810c8e3c17002da428106