Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T05:45:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 05:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 06:05 UTC
Open price
$66,089.38
Close price
$66,045.00

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 66089.380000 and closed at 66045.000000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.8
Opens
Jun 16 · 05:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 05:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 06:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 05:00 ↑ 05:15 ↑ 05:30 ↑ 05:45 ↓ — now 06:00 ↑ 06:15 ↑ 06:30 ↑ 06:45 ↑ 07:00 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 06:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T05:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 06:05:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
05:35:00
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.470 +3.0% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_A2vnyR7GwK96cyX3DZbz3kL6
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 05:35:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 05:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.46%
Down 51.54%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000269 sigma=0.002074 score=-0.5653 p_up=0.4846

Commitment hash
e93b677a731ea86f740a5987286824aac59189340212af7bdc96080a56d39fbd
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
05:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.483 +1.7% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_ax15qGLZwk7ZHq6MwrO7n9zR
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 05:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 05:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.16%
Down 50.84%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.5653 edge=-0.0154 sigma_short=0.001677 sigma_long=0.001792 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4916

Commitment hash
1f7886ee118a0989beec5bc5682695279a899cfa79f026b0655ea894341999d9
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
05:35:00
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.500 0.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_MLpmeG97DG45SYXKolrWdgjb
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 05:35:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 05:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.01%
Down 49.99%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66076.6665 sigma=208.8465 z=-0.0031 p_up=0.5001

Commitment hash
5d591da7a77f06b77d968166656dae2d2385a8051dcc74713e305f834a639bce