Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T16:15:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 16:15 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 16:35 UTC
Open price
$65,776.02
Close price
$65,785.99

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65776.020000 and closed at 65785.990000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.4
Opens
Jun 16 · 16:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 16:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 16:35 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 15:30 ↑ 15:45 ↑ 16:00 ↓ 16:15 ↑ — now 16:30 ↑ 16:45 ↓ 17:00 ↑ 17:15 ↓ 17:30 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 16:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T16:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 16:35:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
16:05:02
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.460 +4.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_rQLBEm5WoP72HJBlD9za01Y4
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 16:05:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 16:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.03%
Down 47.97%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66132.5595 sigma=331.0285 z=-0.8241 p_up=0.5203

Commitment hash
05d0a7d77a03269b96435f8818161619b2a9579c13999ad01e9610b1b4ce8358
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
16:05:03
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.516 -1.6% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_BE2kXa7Qo6ngHg9doy18Alen
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 16:05:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 16:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.19%
Down 50.81%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.0257 edge=-0.0232 sigma_short=0.002655 sigma_long=0.001999 w=0.3500 p_up=0.4919

Commitment hash
c4407c7b81dfd103be844d8ac50d9e6e4f726e57b9e7749a52a8d8cc0abc88aa
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
16:05:02
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.547 -4.7% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_7B6ErGaLD5OgT975w5ylJzve
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 16:05:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 16:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.68%
Down 52.32%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000519 sigma=0.002204 score=-1.0257 p_up=0.4768

Commitment hash
154533f0f8c00bc3484b8ff91c168b1fea674030f7e28c3511d4aaa1c7500d2a