Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T16:30:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 16:30 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 16:50 UTC
Open price
$65,786.00
Close price
$65,808.01

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65786.000000 and closed at 65808.010000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.3
Opens
Jun 16 · 16:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 16:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 16:50 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 15:45 ↑ 16:00 ↓ 16:15 ↑ 16:30 ↑ — now 16:45 ↓ 17:00 ↑ 17:15 ↓ 17:30 ↑ 17:45 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 16:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T16:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 16:50:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
16:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.456 +4.4% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_j2yMmAnQo01giON8w1W4pqGx
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 16:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 16:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.25%
Down 47.75%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66095.7605 sigma=327.6945 z=-0.9758 p_up=0.5225

Commitment hash
b983cbcee4f1309e9bfff32ad6693806d88bc8c512ca1f544bb6e0f92e08a492
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
16:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.517 -1.7% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_Q6El9GNLw7xgsmlKVRbZJ37v
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 16:20:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 16:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.16%
Down 50.84%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.1002 edge=-0.0240 sigma_short=0.002590 sigma_long=0.001974 w=0.3500 p_up=0.4916

Commitment hash
2a592055f492633bc59a03add3a21ca4206ea62d41cb264d65e5bae0379dc8de
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
16:20:00
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.549 -4.9% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_9EjpnQAKwO3OFj5xw5zX1eW6
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 16:20:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 16:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.6%
Down 52.4%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000558 sigma=0.002211 score=-1.1002 p_up=0.4760

Commitment hash
ef8f62451379ad7b4f08aec31e3d9df0aa06cd9a7deca21d71ca6142ba68e40a