Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T16:45:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 16:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 17:05 UTC
Open price
$65,808.01
Close price
$65,758.07

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65808.010000 and closed at 65758.070000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.3
Opens
Jun 16 · 16:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 16:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 17:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 16:00 ↓ 16:15 ↑ 16:30 ↑ 16:45 ↓ — now 17:00 ↑ 17:15 ↓ 17:30 ↑ 17:45 ↑ 18:00 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 17:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T16:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 17:05:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
16:35:00
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.456 +4.4% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_904kZMgdDE6gCPGAoBnQaqEe
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 16:35:00 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 16:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.76%
Down 52.24%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000491 sigma=0.002212 score=-0.9685 p_up=0.4776

Commitment hash
51b961039289741481c5a7b6273c4b87ce6d5087c95e039c1fe07b433055055e
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
16:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.484 +1.6% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_BlAyv3kzDQm0tRr3DWqReg9n
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 16:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 16:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.21%
Down 50.79%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.9685 edge=-0.0224 sigma_short=0.002588 sigma_long=0.001937 w=0.3500 p_up=0.4921

Commitment hash
d54dbf192179f5397d570c533779965a5180f072a54400d0b691f5adff0730d8
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
16:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.542 -4.2% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_G7zbNOMWVvp7idANoE9P1vBd
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 16:35:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-16 16:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.08%
Down 47.92%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=66061.2075 sigma=322.0537 z=-0.8546 p_up=0.5208

Commitment hash
29b092fdfe9741149ba52285abd42725e8a326d961cc63b5f13017051af89a5c