Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:15m:2026-06-17T02:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-17 02:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 17 · 02:20 UTC
Open price
$65,940.00
Close price
$65,905.21

Binance BTCUSDT 15m candle opened at 65940.000000 and closed at 65905.210000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
50%
Difference from baseline
+0.3
Opens
Jun 17 · 01:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 17 · 02:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 17 · 02:20 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Series 01:15 ↓ 01:30 ↑ 01:45 ↑ 02:00 ↓ — now 02:15 ↑ 02:30 ↓ 02:45 ↑ 03:00 ↓ 03:15 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-17 02:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-17T02:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 17 · 02:20:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 17
01:50:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.487 +1.3% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_zq7L80nkoMp4iaO9DEjaK1Zl
Submitted Jun 17, 2026 · 01:50:01 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-17 02:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.35%
Down 50.65%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000075 sigma=0.001501 score=-0.2188 p_up=0.4935

Commitment hash
4047eb7703ba73c91641cd7efbd21956a3596576723d24aecb3d68b7dcaf6a9c
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 17
01:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.493 +0.7% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_673nmr8ZwrGOh5MEV1ePEqxB
Submitted Jun 17, 2026 · 01:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-17 02:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.64%
Down 50.36%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.2188 edge=-0.0065 sigma_short=0.001722 sigma_long=0.001507 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4964

Commitment hash
e1c67d8bcb5760e22ddb925344f5fc9b631daf41f666cbd4b43456917b60b2a5
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 17
01:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.499 +0.1% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_zgjx25nXwLnpHG00DOd0yZq1
Submitted Jun 17, 2026 · 01:50:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-17 02:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.97%
Down 50.03%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=65759.1005 sigma=69.5101 z=0.0095 p_up=0.4997

Commitment hash
8a2ea6747e1af9f04912fa74ab7cbef092c5260b64ac3006dc1646219a5f86e2