Crypto Resolved Hourly Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:1h:2026-06-09T02:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-09 02:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 9 · 03:05 UTC
Open price
$62,764.00
Close price
$62,868.00

Binance BTCUSDT 1h candle opened at 62764.000000 and closed at 62868.000000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.7
Opens
Jun 9 · 01:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 9 · 02:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 9 · 03:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Series 23:00 ↓ 00:00 ↓ 01:00 ↑ 02:00 ↑ — now 03:00 ↑ 04:00 ↑ 05:00 ↑ 06:00 ↓ 07:00 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-09 03:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-09T02:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 9 · 03:05:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 9
01:35:03
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.443 +5.7% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_BzW1LX5PDjz5CYJkDOKAlqGM
Submitted Jun 9, 2026 · 01:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-09 02:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.95%
Down 47.05%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63395.7310 sigma=353.5388 z=-2.3582 p_up=0.5295

Commitment hash
10305735afcf43e32d5171b2685032a73273f6368e9cfd1090660b9f987366cc
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 9
01:35:03
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.508 -0.8% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_26ObeAJmoYqvhLB7ojMBk8Xp
Submitted Jun 9, 2026 · 01:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-09 02:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.59%
Down 50.41%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.1741 edge=-0.0052 sigma_short=0.003430 sigma_long=0.005599 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4959

Commitment hash
f84a3b8f5de86fc8e8c3adef1bc54e2457c8ddf541209c38cf27c1930157fb4b
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 9
01:35:03
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.510 -1.0% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_K0YXjLbzom6xCBejw3qMl598
Submitted Jun 9, 2026 · 01:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-09 02:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.48%
Down 50.52%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000170 sigma=0.004248 score=-0.1741 p_up=0.4948

Commitment hash
4eb316321415eb6ac770be2037e917d09d147cf22b49fda254e1bc139f9e6450