Crypto Resolved Hourly Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:1h:2026-06-10T03:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-10 03:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 10 · 04:05 UTC
Open price
$61,302.37
Close price
$61,549.64

Binance BTCUSDT 1h candle opened at 61302.370000 and closed at 61549.640000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.7
Opens
Jun 10 · 02:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 10 · 03:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 10 · 04:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Series 00:00 ↑ 01:00 ↓ 02:00 ↓ 03:00 ↑ — now 04:00 ↓ 05:00 ↑ 06:00 ↑ 07:00 ↑ 08:00 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-10 04:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-10T03:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 10 · 04:05:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 10
02:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.463 +3.7% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_kB1Mx3X5o4zgC4kmV4nQbZN0
Submitted Jun 10, 2026 · 02:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-10 03:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.87%
Down 48.13%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=62156.5860 sigma=603.7404 z=-0.7331 p_up=0.5187

Commitment hash
b8ee6dc5959b934e649274692150b52ea28874cd6e0995412139a74b566a39e3
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 10
02:35:03
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.529 -2.9% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_9EjpnQAKwO3OF5q8w5zX1eW6
Submitted Jun 10, 2026 · 02:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-10 03:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.56%
Down 51.44%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.3364 edge=-0.0261 sigma_short=0.003522 sigma_long=0.004161 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4856

Commitment hash
5223deffb925a8def02549e9489928ec8819ad932a630bb9593518a0f65f0f79
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 10
02:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.554 -5.4% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_BE2kXa7Qo6ngH9R5oy18Alen
Submitted Jun 10, 2026 · 02:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-10 03:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.39%
Down 52.61%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.001336 sigma=0.004356 score=-1.3364 p_up=0.4739

Commitment hash
5cf50a62789b810e6ee9af2d9bb5e038436771114396e9698fe99a4c0a0b3e29