Crypto Resolved Hourly Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:1h:2026-06-13T16:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 16:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 13 · 17:05 UTC
Open price
$64,296.15
Close price
$64,029.17

Binance BTCUSDT 1h candle opened at 64296.150000 and closed at 64029.170000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
53%
Difference from baseline
+0.6
Opens
Jun 13 · 15:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 13 · 16:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 13 · 17:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Series 13:00 ↓ 14:00 ↑ 15:00 ↑ 16:00 ↓ — now 17:00 ↓ 18:00 ↑ 19:00 ↑ 20:00 ↓ 21:00 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-13 17:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-13T16:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 13 · 17:05:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 13
15:35:03
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.443 +5.7% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_ag9d6j7EwBNgsjMqwJAQ5kqR
Submitted Jun 13, 2026 · 15:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 16:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.08%
Down 52.92%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=63735.3080 sigma=225.3608 z=2.1550 p_up=0.4708

Commitment hash
bc012d41ca033b32437123397829c4c350d598e24b1ab5b85e5ad60b8c8998db
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 13
15:35:03
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.543 -4.3% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_dnazAerPwl9PcmNqVb97G5lM
Submitted Jun 13, 2026 · 15:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 16:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.08%
Down 47.92%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=1.3232 edge=0.0260 sigma_short=0.001244 sigma_long=0.003507 w=0.8000 p_up=0.5208

Commitment hash
a2bd52f2f339eafcd3cb1c95f2f616d2ddba969e996d2a99723876567c556fe0
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 13
15:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.553 -5.3% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_k1qjB4eXVy9jc4PgVnpWL3gm
Submitted Jun 13, 2026 · 15:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-13 16:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.6%
Down 47.4%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000520 sigma=0.001714 score=1.3232 p_up=0.5260

Commitment hash
e00683ab86003f602208e13007f77912fed626a4cc14de09ca90e3ec1f584ecc