Crypto Resolved Hourly Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:1h:2026-06-14T04:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 04:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 05:05 UTC
Open price
$64,545.30
Close price
$64,339.07

Binance BTCUSDT 1h candle opened at 64545.300000 and closed at 64339.070000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.7
Opens
Jun 14 · 03:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 04:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 05:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Series 01:00 ↓ 02:00 ↓ 03:00 ↑ 04:00 ↓ — now 05:00 ↓ 06:00 ↓ 07:00 ↑ 08:00 ↑ 09:00 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 05:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-14T04:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 05:05:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
03:35:03
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.452 +4.8% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_l4L0eAk2wAAgTNeQwg3aqryB
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 03:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 04:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.52%
Down 52.48%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=64185.1295 sigma=259.0022 z=1.1771 p_up=0.4752

Commitment hash
a0932476f1597fb787ad7f8d1997ca5d142752dd9b4a635ceebe747eeafaf55d
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
03:35:03
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.542 -4.2% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_904kZMgdDE6gCXQjoBnQaqEe
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 03:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 04:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.08%
Down 47.92%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=1.3130 edge=0.0260 sigma_short=0.001485 sigma_long=0.003076 w=0.8000 p_up=0.5208

Commitment hash
431e1387d83345fb26c98c98185fc58f664ca53161e6d08c547b1f786df47a6f
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
03:35:03
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.553 -5.3% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_Q6El9GNLw7xgs98WVRbZJ37v
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 03:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 04:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.6%
Down 47.4%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000528 sigma=0.001754 score=1.3130 p_up=0.5260

Commitment hash
f1f1ca88106caaf00d4bbdbcbc0ba34a21e19ce2a91e6e462c07c49c24e35031