Crypto Resolved Hourly Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:1h:2026-06-14T13:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 13:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 14:05 UTC
Open price
$64,327.54
Close price
$64,317.99

Binance BTCUSDT 1h candle opened at 64327.540000 and closed at 64317.990000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.6
Opens
Jun 14 · 12:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 13:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 14:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Series 10:00 ↓ 11:00 ↑ 12:00 ↓ 13:00 ↓ — now 14:00 ↓ 15:00 ↑ 16:00 ↓ 17:00 ↓ 18:00 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 14:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 14:05:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
12:35:03
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.458 +4.2% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_l4L0eAk2wAAgTQP5wg3aqryB
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 12:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 13:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.86%
Down 52.14%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=64390.8785 sigma=173.7745 z=0.8927 p_up=0.4786

Commitment hash
daec30884a4938824bbaaff8dd8328ffeb714f3a93d2bb5d20cb7233a4ee25f4
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
12:35:03
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.527 -2.7% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_904kZMgdDE6gC2gxoBnQaqEe
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 12:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 13:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.35%
Down 48.65%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=1.1487 edge=0.0245 sigma_short=0.001627 sigma_long=0.001778 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5135

Commitment hash
7e8fc80a403645ce41d65ec8101080c2e160d5204c4d8b226a94ced2182acd7b
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
12:35:03
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.550 -5.0% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_Q6El9GNLw7xgsYEvVRbZJ37v
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 12:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 13:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.45%
Down 47.55%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000423 sigma=0.001606 score=1.1487 p_up=0.5245

Commitment hash
dfb5febcea1fb0f97c1b9eb7df0f512dfb75f69d72ddd054e67022667f4922ff