Crypto Resolved Hourly Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:1h:2026-06-14T14:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 14:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 15:05 UTC
Open price
$64,318.00
Close price
$63,983.55

Binance BTCUSDT 1h candle opened at 64318.000000 and closed at 63983.550000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+1.4
Opens
Jun 14 · 13:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 14:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 15:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Series 11:00 ↑ 12:00 ↓ 13:00 ↓ 14:00 ↓ — now 15:00 ↑ 16:00 ↓ 17:00 ↓ 18:00 ↑ 19:00 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 15:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-14T14:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 15:05:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
13:35:03
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.520 -2.0% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_Q6El9GNLw7xgsY0vVRbZJ37v
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 13:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 14:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.01%
Down 48.99%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.7087 edge=0.0183 sigma_short=0.001899 sigma_long=0.001830 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5101

Commitment hash
1c712197b99300dff7cc07df41fc77d511c645231b77955fc4b098a24e819b0d
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
13:35:03
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.529 -2.9% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_j2yMmAnQo01gireRw1W4pqGx
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 13:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 14:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.41%
Down 48.59%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=64405.7965 sigma=153.7337 z=-0.5091 p_up=0.5141

Commitment hash
90952368e909563959f34b8dc25ade59a79a49ce6aa3c8843b9dc09502853b55
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
13:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.537 -3.7% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_9EjpnQAKwO3OFbM8w5zX1eW6
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 13:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 14:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.83%
Down 48.17%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000292 sigma=0.001798 score=0.7087 p_up=0.5183

Commitment hash
18118deb532aeaccac0bd0481d579fc0145b854109142cf31331e1d770388703