Crypto Resolved Hourly Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:1h:2026-06-14T19:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 19:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 20:05 UTC
Open price
$63,813.30
Close price
$63,802.00

Binance BTCUSDT 1h candle opened at 63813.300000 and closed at 63802.000000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.4
Opens
Jun 14 · 18:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 19:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 20:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Series 16:00 ↓ 17:00 ↓ 18:00 ↑ 19:00 ↓ — now 20:00 ↑ 21:00 ↑ 22:00 ↑ 23:00 ↑ 00:00 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 20:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-14T19:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 20:05:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
18:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.449 +5.1% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_g7xznkbOwq29c3x8VmELRlWQ
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 18:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 19:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.41%
Down 52.59%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000594 sigma=0.001975 score=-1.3119 p_up=0.4741

Commitment hash
2c80d38118eaa0bf438e8b0ce665ad51eada7cd13472af32a57176a14dfc94fb
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
18:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.472 +2.8% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_WzKkexj7we4xSG83opr9mNPa
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 18:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 19:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.57%
Down 51.43%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.3119 edge=-0.0259 sigma_short=0.002200 sigma_long=0.002017 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4857

Commitment hash
f4bbf5d18e978717242945ceaf227da33906ab3339b934f4f7dc035797c8e047
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
18:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.561 -6.1% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_0MeQn9qmwgznCmv2oYl4kr65
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 18:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 19:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.97%
Down 47.03%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=64346.9610 sigma=236.7538 z=-2.5948 p_up=0.5297

Commitment hash
4cb75817bbadc1a0c154a787e50c96396c2cd50d598d5bb8793cec4629ada434