Crypto Resolved Hourly Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:1h:2026-06-14T18:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 18:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 19:05 UTC
Open price
$63,732.65
Close price
$63,813.30

Binance BTCUSDT 1h candle opened at 63732.650000 and closed at 63813.300000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.2
Opens
Jun 14 · 17:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 18:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 19:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Series 15:00 ↑ 16:00 ↓ 17:00 ↓ 18:00 ↑ — now 19:00 ↓ 20:00 ↑ 21:00 ↑ 22:00 ↑ 23:00 ↑
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 19:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-14T18:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 19:05:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
17:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.443 +5.7% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_xYnBL4N1wZNyse0Zw7kZGzPE
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 17:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 18:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.94%
Down 47.06%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=64383.8810 sigma=191.2840 z=-2.3068 p_up=0.5294

Commitment hash
6f6ff3cc7e955c06559743b03479c26bd006b175896bb74fc3957d6f8a89b3ca
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
17:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.526 -2.6% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_ZrAQgKBlDJnJHXpZD3j6Wdq1
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 17:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 18:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.74%
Down 51.26%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.0093 edge=-0.0230 sigma_short=0.002269 sigma_long=0.002032 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4874

Commitment hash
efdd7e0b0ae7e3fec092249f0d0ee4b08b99aabcda68eea652b43bc74ae2dc68
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
17:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.547 -4.7% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_W4QmKAe0wx4ASLaMwrg8JY5Z
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 17:35:02 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 18:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.7%
Down 52.3%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000433 sigma=0.001871 score=-1.0093 p_up=0.4770

Commitment hash
86704fdcf66e752de638b4b2c457425798b77ec3aac4690ab49aefab21610e57