Crypto Resolved Hourly Binance BTC/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:BTCUSDT:1h:2026-06-14T20:00:00Z
Bitcoin

BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 20:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 21:05 UTC
Open price
$63,801.99
Close price
$64,008.64

Binance BTCUSDT 1h candle opened at 63801.990000 and closed at 64008.640000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.3
Opens
Jun 14 · 19:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 20:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 21:05 UTC
Source
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Series 17:00 ↓ 18:00 ↑ 19:00 ↓ 20:00 ↑ — now 21:00 ↑ 22:00 ↑ 23:00 ↑ 00:00 ↓ 01:00 ↓
Rules
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance
Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle
Binance · 1h candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 21:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance BTC/USDT 1h candle beginning at 2026-06-14T20:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 21:05:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
19:35:03
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.444 +5.6% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_40Q536YODN09HYq6wRWvqpr8
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 19:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 20:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.87%
Down 47.13%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=64314.8025 sigma=262.0273 z=-1.9139 p_up=0.5287

Commitment hash
0bcb7e1ce6ae50321f6f96ab6862abe709f4e63df145f2b56245dd13e28c2f67
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
19:35:03
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.527 -2.7% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_4BXNaeEbo16gCpZMwkOy0xjq
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 19:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 20:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.65%
Down 51.35%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.1448 edge=-0.0245 sigma_short=0.002271 sigma_long=0.001970 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4865

Commitment hash
672b6b61af3d04180bbf1891953d9b3f6c63b2fb64a29f7350268567f0462ac7
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
19:35:03
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.550 -5.0% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_apB6lzPrV3mgtXl8oXAeKd4v
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 19:35:03 UTC
BTC Up or Down - 2026-06-14 20:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.55%
Down 52.45%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000529 sigma=0.002014 score=-1.1448 p_up=0.4755

Commitment hash
be76978f43d2339363b51453a82f9c75c7a6504751f1d8b05ee6d7d0232bf4e3