Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T13:15:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 13:15 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 13:35 UTC
Open price
$1,667.43
Close price
$1,666.28

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1667.430000 and closed at 1666.280000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.8
Opens
Jun 12 · 13:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 13:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 13:35 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 12:30 ↓ 12:45 ↑ 13:00 ↑ 13:15 ↓ — now 13:30 ↓ 13:45 ↑ 14:00 ↑ 14:15 ↑ 14:30 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 13:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T13:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 13:35:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
13:05:01
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.495 +0.5% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_l4L0eAk2wAAgTN0Jwg3aqryB
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 13:05:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 13:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.77%
Down 50.23%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000033 sigma=0.001895 score=-0.0763 p_up=0.4977

Commitment hash
62b65a6b3f08dc447623504fd862c6b8ad4c97ad0733afa6551258bdb292cdc7
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
13:05:01
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.496 +0.4% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_G7zbNOMWVvp7iax9oE9P1vBd
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 13:05:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 13:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.82%
Down 50.18%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.0763 edge=-0.0023 sigma_short=0.001051 sigma_long=0.002009 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4982

Commitment hash
89d2fd36f3671739b167b389e617eb50c3680ccbd5100fef8d053f489330cc9e
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
13:05:01
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.557 -5.7% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_904kZMgdDE6gCXzyoBnQaqEe
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 13:05:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 13:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.77%
Down 47.23%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1673.9785 sigma=4.6081 z=-1.6142 p_up=0.5277

Commitment hash
16d59eef4f5f1ec3fa50c8babd5f2667f93c6617a6527985c7b5b107f165f417