Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T14:30:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 14:30 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 14:50 UTC
Open price
$1,670.54
Close price
$1,668.83

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1670.540000 and closed at 1668.830000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.5
Opens
Jun 12 · 14:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 14:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 14:50 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 13:45 ↑ 14:00 ↑ 14:15 ↑ 14:30 ↓ — now 14:45 ↑ 15:00 ↑ 15:15 ↓ 15:30 ↓ 15:45 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 14:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T14:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 14:50:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
14:20:00
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.459 +4.1% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_G7zbNOMWVvp7iam9oE9P1vBd
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 14:20:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 14:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.9%
Down 52.1%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000430 sigma=0.002157 score=-0.8689 p_up=0.4790

Commitment hash
0cfb57910cb6dbb581e24438b354cf488c93eed41407d4f67a2a69f19a899806
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
14:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.477 +2.3% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_ZdYR0198o8ngH8M1VlXveKJ6
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 14:20:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 14:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.84%
Down 51.16%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.8689 edge=-0.0210 sigma_short=0.002588 sigma_long=0.002321 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4884

Commitment hash
275bb0dac4011d01055fab107213e19096d92e548a2c53b6f9b4357f62bc7808
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
14:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.539 -3.9% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_BlAyv3kzDQm0t1JnDWqReg9n
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 14:20:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 14:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.9%
Down 48.1%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1671.5865 sigma=6.9786 z=-0.7489 p_up=0.5190

Commitment hash
ccb6e75917c69f20cd51e69c7b905674d33bfdd1391a67f9132d0628cb4845de