Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T15:45:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 15:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 16:05 UTC
Open price
$1,671.54
Close price
$1,660.08

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1671.540000 and closed at 1660.080000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.5
Opens
Jun 12 · 15:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 15:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 16:05 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 15:00 ↑ 15:15 ↓ 15:30 ↓ 15:45 ↓ — now 16:00 ↑ 16:15 ↓ 16:30 ↓ 16:45 ↑ 17:00 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 16:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T15:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 16:05:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
15:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.449 +5.1% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_xpn3ZLedwX3YFXRMor79GXqN
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 15:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 15:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.39%
Down 52.61%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1671.7060 sigma=8.1034 z=1.3370 p_up=0.4739

Commitment hash
81ba6930f2c54a2a48b9bd940c2c64a8c5b90257bdd9f691988cb9c5981c93eb
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
15:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.506 -0.6% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_K0YXjLbzom6xCeEJw3qMl598
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 15:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 15:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.32%
Down 49.68%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.3139 edge=0.0091 sigma_short=0.004308 sigma_long=0.002725 w=0.3500 p_up=0.5032

Commitment hash
6249f3dfc311e88971375121263e2e771a6aa2955dcda6f3dbaab1c8c296f358
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
15:35:00
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.518 -1.8% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_L5Xdpj9Zw2Wgu931VzBAYvMJ
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 15:35:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 15:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.91%
Down 49.09%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000236 sigma=0.003283 score=0.3139 p_up=0.5091

Commitment hash
a3488f83a786e2a6aaa70ef74072fe98708edc31bf3322bb72640e29ebee8f64