Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T17:00:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 17:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 17:20 UTC
Open price
$1,672.91
Close price
$1,671.71

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1672.910000 and closed at 1671.710000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
50%
Difference from baseline
+0.1
Opens
Jun 12 · 16:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 17:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 17:20 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 16:15 ↓ 16:30 ↓ 16:45 ↑ 17:00 ↓ — now 17:15 ↓ 17:30 ↓ 17:45 ↓ 18:00 ↓ 18:15 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 17:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 17:20:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
16:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.490 +1.0% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_ag9d6j7EwBNgsj4ewJAQ5kqR
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 16:50:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 17:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.5%
Down 50.5%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000164 sigma=0.004236 score=-0.1688 p_up=0.4950

Commitment hash
25f6ec06f606d9aa0a1ee5a06223c91d50da037f904bfe451de60414c43ee401
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
16:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.496 +0.4% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_zq7L80nkoMp4ieGNDEjaK1Zl
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 16:50:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 17:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.82%
Down 50.18%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.1688 edge=-0.0050 sigma_short=0.005217 sigma_long=0.003220 w=0.3500 p_up=0.4982

Commitment hash
15e30054881cd6884fe497e470def2ceacb74970646bfcaad2224cbab5bd0226
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
16:50:02
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.509 -0.9% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_dnazAerPwl9PcmzQVb97G5lM
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 16:50:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 17:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.46%
Down 49.54%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1669.9345 sigma=8.1293 z=-0.1543 p_up=0.5046

Commitment hash
13e6ebc692a5b54f7ff8f4a195214b7e3736176325e70f7a2df9268f3c2672eb