Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T16:30:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 16:30 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 16:50 UTC
Open price
$1,670.55
Close price
$1,668.68

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1670.550000 and closed at 1668.680000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
50%
Difference from baseline
+0.3
Opens
Jun 12 · 16:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 16:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 16:50 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 15:45 ↓ 16:00 ↑ 16:15 ↓ 16:30 ↓ — now 16:45 ↑ 17:00 ↓ 17:15 ↓ 17:30 ↓ 17:45 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 16:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T16:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 16:50:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
16:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.491 +0.9% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_4BXNaeEbo16gCZy8wkOy0xjq
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 16:20:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 16:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.53%
Down 50.47%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000153 sigma=0.004234 score=-0.1580 p_up=0.4953

Commitment hash
1348443336b394c1447ce17174f4f2e6164cae06a179ec5bdb05b9a4b345ad6e
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
16:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.494 +0.6% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_W4QmKAe0wx4AS5NJwrg8JY5Z
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 16:20:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 16:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.72%
Down 50.28%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1670.5445 sigma=8.3052 z=0.0946 p_up=0.4972

Commitment hash
ee497c69051b379818ab05d18a0bddf7a6680da85c9cbfd5c1a285d55a7b32ab
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
16:20:02
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.497 +0.3% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_xYnBL4N1wZNysyk2w7kZGzPE
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 16:20:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 16:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.84%
Down 50.16%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.1580 edge=-0.0047 sigma_short=0.005398 sigma_long=0.003270 w=0.3500 p_up=0.4984

Commitment hash
6c7902d971c6757fdfdf65ef2497c4dac906ef63d9617a6dbad7af217ea4446a