Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T14:45:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 14:45 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 15:05 UTC
Open price
$1,668.82
Close price
$1,685.64

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1668.820000 and closed at 1685.640000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.9
Opens
Jun 12 · 14:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 14:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 15:05 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 14:00 ↑ 14:15 ↑ 14:30 ↓ 14:45 ↑ — now 15:00 ↑ 15:15 ↓ 15:30 ↓ 15:45 ↓ 16:00 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 15:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T14:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 15:05:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
14:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.495 +0.5% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_ax15qGLZwk7ZHL10wrO7n9zR
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 14:35:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 14:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.25%
Down 49.75%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1671.1125 sigma=6.7056 z=-0.0839 p_up=0.5025

Commitment hash
e1a5df5006dcbe9c23de3f7162913b22f05c90e397a5c11c053f5b19583d0f7c
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
14:35:03
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.521 -2.1% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_j65YM2E8odpriGEyoPrz3bWe
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 14:35:03 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 14:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.97%
Down 51.03%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.7334 edge=-0.0188 sigma_short=0.002740 sigma_long=0.002260 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4897

Commitment hash
98a6e31a9cf569fff6210d181db44d72e20af291935e89c897326af84536c9cb
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
14:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.538 -3.8% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_MLpmeG97DG45SnbNolrWdgjb
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 14:35:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 14:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.12%
Down 51.88%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000373 sigma=0.002219 score=-0.7334 p_up=0.4812

Commitment hash
bd00c89c8b4ee7a89df9877f831bdac1ab3aeb68930d2fd8546acf47df672833