Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T20:30:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 20:30 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 20:50 UTC
Open price
$1,666.36
Close price
$1,666.11

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1666.360000 and closed at 1666.110000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.6
Opens
Jun 12 · 20:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 20:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 20:50 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 19:45 ↓ 20:00 ↑ 20:15 ↓ 20:30 ↓ — now 20:45 ↓ 21:00 ↑ 21:15 ↓ 21:30 ↓ 21:45 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 20:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T20:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 20:50:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
20:20:02
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.464 +3.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_W4QmKAe0wx4AS5abwrg8JY5Z
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 20:20:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 20:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.19%
Down 51.81%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000472 sigma=0.002942 score=-0.6987 p_up=0.4819

Commitment hash
6fb764efe3593024d8399b882b66ae3f70953f8d27ae441d48e7c7968cd6c25d
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
20:20:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.471 +2.9% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_ZrAQgKBlDJnJHgpMD3j6Wdq1
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 20:20:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 20:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.55%
Down 51.45%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.6987 edge=-0.0181 sigma_short=0.001520 sigma_long=0.003123 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4855

Commitment hash
106d8478bfca72e986fa1bd8266f2816d970e9cf207a560b1a0ae0c670d7fd8b
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
20:20:02
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.527 -2.7% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_xYnBL4N1wZNysy0vw7kZGzPE
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 20:20:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 20:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.34%
Down 48.66%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1669.4905 sigma=4.0782 z=-0.4807 p_up=0.5134

Commitment hash
7eaba2318913940ffa91b254a634786b6f7ac7c8fe614e2a2b48f11cd0cbabec