Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T20:45:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 20:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 21:05 UTC
Open price
$1,666.12
Close price
$1,664.92

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1666.120000 and closed at 1664.920000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.2
Opens
Jun 12 · 20:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 20:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 21:05 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 20:00 ↑ 20:15 ↓ 20:30 ↓ 20:45 ↓ — now 21:00 ↑ 21:15 ↓ 21:30 ↓ 21:45 ↓ 22:00 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 21:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T20:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 21:05:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
20:35:00
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.484 +1.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_kB1Mx3X5o4zgC141V4nQbZN0
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 20:35:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 20:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.19%
Down 50.81%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000163 sigma=0.002572 score=-0.2763 p_up=0.4919

Commitment hash
c1befa118086f718fe8df673c5cde878222dad037f9e33e4dc61c1da31ef352f
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
20:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.487 +1.3% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_j2yMmAnQo01gimNkw1W4pqGx
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 20:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 20:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.35%
Down 50.65%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.2763 edge=-0.0081 sigma_short=0.001531 sigma_long=0.003066 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4935

Commitment hash
694246fdee350b74ab34d6deb626a635aae32386a897b1b2446d05b585829500
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
20:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.541 -4.1% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_9EjpnQAKwO3OFE5jw5zX1eW6
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 20:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 20:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.03%
Down 47.97%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1668.6820 sigma=2.8197 z=-0.8200 p_up=0.5203

Commitment hash
f07185779e444bc577016a139ee80070961cd1dcdab6482aafe37794a4a75b28