Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T21:30:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 21:30 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 21:50 UTC
Open price
$1,666.17
Close price
$1,665.80

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1666.170000 and closed at 1665.800000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.0
Opens
Jun 12 · 21:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 21:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 21:50 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 20:45 ↓ 21:00 ↑ 21:15 ↓ 21:30 ↓ — now 21:45 ↓ 22:00 ↓ 22:15 ↑ 22:30 ↓ 22:45 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 21:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T21:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 21:50:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
21:20:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.479 +2.1% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_4BXNaeEbo16gCZ4LwkOy0xjq
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 21:20:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 21:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.95%
Down 51.05%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000113 sigma=0.001353 score=-0.3637 p_up=0.4895

Commitment hash
2a81cda44eb026192a685b6858aad4326cf89b08cc65c1281b73458af9e31318
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
21:20:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.483 +1.7% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_xYnBL4N1wZNysygvw7kZGzPE
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 21:20:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 21:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.16%
Down 50.84%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.3637 edge=-0.0105 sigma_short=0.001279 sigma_long=0.003064 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4916

Commitment hash
1843ee6265f63cf99ff729d215db49f424c641b166c312464657086136087828
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
21:20:02
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.536 -3.6% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_W4QmKAe0wx4AS58bwrg8JY5Z
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 21:20:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 21:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.79%
Down 48.21%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1668.4340 sigma=2.1487 z=-0.6860 p_up=0.5179

Commitment hash
f950b9d8c2227baa213e5a50c984161593da00f35921740d989c82a6f307b074