Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T22:45:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 22:45 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 23:05 UTC
Open price
$1,662.55
Close price
$1,662.60

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1662.550000 and closed at 1662.600000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.0
Opens
Jun 12 · 22:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 22:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 23:05 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 22:00 ↓ 22:15 ↑ 22:30 ↓ 22:45 ↑ — now 23:00 ↓ 23:15 ↑ 23:30 ↑ 23:45 ↑ 00:00 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 23:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T22:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 23:05:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
22:35:03
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.456 +4.4% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_l4L0eAk2wAAgTNN8wg3aqryB
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 22:35:03 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 22:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.26%
Down 47.74%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1666.9790 sigma=1.8986 z=-0.9844 p_up=0.5226

Commitment hash
fd77ae01a040ffb50598db282d229b4c02b1bfc734195e460f0161d4be72e5f6
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
22:35:07
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.521 -2.1% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_904kZMgdDE6gCXXroBnQaqEe
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 22:35:07 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 22:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.96%
Down 51.04%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.4650 edge=-0.0130 sigma_short=0.000719 sigma_long=0.003033 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4896

Commitment hash
11e5df13f94b84396a6e6d7b73d0ace4b99638f29595f586e5630e132e9f8a14
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
22:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.526 -2.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_Q6El9GNLw7xgs99QVRbZJ37v
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 22:35:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 22:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.7%
Down 51.3%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000128 sigma=0.001196 score=-0.4650 p_up=0.4870

Commitment hash
3b94717c2dbd40c50b2dfedea8fc55beb98248956dc81838d7f82f8658223ae3