Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T23:00:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 23:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 12 · 23:20 UTC
Open price
$1,662.60
Close price
$1,661.20

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1662.600000 and closed at 1661.200000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.1
Opens
Jun 12 · 22:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 23:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 12 · 23:20 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 22:15 ↑ 22:30 ↓ 22:45 ↑ 23:00 ↓ — now 23:15 ↑ 23:30 ↑ 23:45 ↑ 00:00 ↑ 00:15 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-12 23:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T23:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 12 · 23:20:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
22:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.464 +3.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_apB6lzPrV3mgtlXloXAeKd4v
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 22:50:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 23:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.18%
Down 51.82%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000199 sigma=0.001237 score=-0.7016 p_up=0.4818

Commitment hash
7478b9271567dd01fbfa91c8f7d1e7651dd936bbb68b0e1b2778e4f981d6f9fe
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
22:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.471 +2.9% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_4BXNaeEbo16gCZpWwkOy0xjq
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 22:50:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 23:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.55%
Down 51.45%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.7016 edge=-0.0182 sigma_short=0.000758 sigma_long=0.003041 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4855

Commitment hash
9feb519bac9ad9ca999218f2b2348ee4ae667487a1406c1ad68583343958b795
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
22:50:02
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.559 -5.9% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_40Q536YODN09HqYPwRWvqpr8
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 22:50:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 23:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.89%
Down 47.11%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1666.6485 sigma=2.0603 z=-1.9941 p_up=0.5289

Commitment hash
cae9f3f81e4f059421bc47e5c06ca6656f92e5ea9dcd34344952e9003037480f