Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-13T00:00:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-13 00:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 13 · 00:20 UTC
Open price
$1,666.42
Close price
$1,667.96

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1666.420000 and closed at 1667.960000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.2
Opens
Jun 12 · 23:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 13 · 00:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 13 · 00:20 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 23:15 ↑ 23:30 ↑ 23:45 ↑ 00:00 ↑ — now 00:15 ↓ 00:30 ↑ 00:45 ↑ 01:00 ↑ 01:15 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-13 00:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-13T00:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 13 · 00:20:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
23:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.454 +4.6% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_ax15qGLZwk7ZHLyBwrO7n9zR
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 23:50:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-13 00:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.35%
Down 47.65%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1665.3380 sigma=2.2128 z=-1.0566 p_up=0.5235

Commitment hash
79635d4e5e10edeb9f0611d2e81d03846128261aab911b0f2319eda3ffd03f37
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
23:50:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.527 -2.7% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_j65YM2E8odpriGdYoPrz3bWe
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 23:50:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-13 00:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.67%
Down 51.33%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.6227 edge=-0.0166 sigma_short=0.000698 sigma_long=0.002912 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4867

Commitment hash
fc987ae3bd54a37678b55445c8ddd0316cdcb3f433747314b8c4c76aa41322d6
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
23:50:00
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.534 -3.4% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_MLpmeG97DG45Sn44olrWdgjb
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 23:50:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-13 00:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.34%
Down 51.66%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000122 sigma=0.000856 score=-0.6227 p_up=0.4834

Commitment hash
3f23101a2737e707dae36ad11cca6a461ddfb972bf6683771ff4c2eb77d89af4