Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-12T23:45:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 23:45 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 13 · 00:05 UTC
Open price
$1,663.00
Close price
$1,666.41

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1663.000000 and closed at 1666.410000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.6
Opens
Jun 12 · 23:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 12 · 23:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 13 · 00:05 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 23:00 ↓ 23:15 ↑ 23:30 ↑ 23:45 ↑ — now 00:00 ↑ 00:15 ↓ 00:30 ↑ 00:45 ↑ 01:00 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-13 00:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-12T23:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 13 · 00:05:04 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
23:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.448 +5.2% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_zq7L80nkoMp4ieXBDEjaK1Zl
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 23:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 23:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.65%
Down 47.35%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1665.7730 sigma=2.5412 z=-1.3942 p_up=0.5265

Commitment hash
f4133974a450d15b7a486b24c08f4ca0732e7d80433a2bc03d2f9d120e991b23
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 12
23:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.542 -4.2% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_zgjx25nXwLnpHmG7DOd0yZq1
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 23:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 23:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.96%
Down 52.04%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.2493 edge=-0.0254 sigma_short=0.000803 sigma_long=0.003042 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4796

Commitment hash
278257fda589973f1691193b829d05989523130946eb1721a9444faf90bed281
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 12
23:35:00
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.552 -5.2% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_dnazAerPwl9PcmK0Vb97G5lM
Submitted Jun 12, 2026 · 23:35:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-12 23:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.46%
Down 52.54%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000299 sigma=0.001043 score=-1.2493 p_up=0.4746

Commitment hash
4f5e0be42233a1f2720a325674162d96a1a23c44278a190084f4dd147917a739