Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-14T10:45:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 10:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 11:05 UTC
Open price
$1,676.16
Close price
$1,673.13

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1676.160000 and closed at 1673.130000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
50%
Difference from baseline
+0.2
Opens
Jun 14 · 10:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 10:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 11:05 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 10:00 ↓ 10:15 ↑ 10:30 ↓ 10:45 ↓ — now 11:00 ↑ 11:15 ↑ 11:30 ↑ 11:45 ↓ 12:00 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 11:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-14T10:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 11:05:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
10:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.492 +0.8% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_zq7L80nkoMp4iXgLDEjaK1Zl
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 10:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 10:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.59%
Down 50.41%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000046 sigma=0.001450 score=-0.1378 p_up=0.4959

Commitment hash
e05c5cabd6dd23f92417ad031d9fda7c8041ee96229459c1e493ee99174a0a74
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
10:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.495 +0.5% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_673nmr8ZwrGOhxLgV1ePEqxB
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 10:35:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 10:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.77%
Down 50.23%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.1378 edge=-0.0041 sigma_short=0.001560 sigma_long=0.001254 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4977

Commitment hash
a79383acbea6497d581f0c8b25311a1456f85f1ac24c72dcd2073ee8135feecd
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
10:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.502 -0.2% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_zgjx25nXwLnpHAWMDOd0yZq1
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 10:35:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 10:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.11%
Down 49.89%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1676.6795 sigma=2.1191 z=-0.0375 p_up=0.5011

Commitment hash
1a7846b3717db5df8296676db1508ef123553fa3ef2d0ae3a10bfacc880b1bb7