Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-14T11:45:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 11:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 12:05 UTC
Open price
$1,675.90
Close price
$1,673.73

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1675.900000 and closed at 1673.730000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.2
Opens
Jun 14 · 11:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 11:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 12:05 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 11:00 ↑ 11:15 ↑ 11:30 ↑ 11:45 ↓ — now 12:00 ↓ 12:15 ↓ 12:30 ↓ 12:45 ↓ 13:00 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 12:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-14T11:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 12:05:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
11:35:00
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.489 +1.1% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_ZdYR0198o8ngH5MEVlXveKJ6
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 11:35:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 11:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.44%
Down 50.56%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000060 sigma=0.001367 score=-0.1903 p_up=0.4944

Commitment hash
6096884e83f4e2d9b23688b2c3252a75cc27e63b41358322124262077a83a1b9
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
11:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.496 +0.4% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_MLpmeG97DG45SYbOolrWdgjb
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 11:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 11:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.8%
Down 50.2%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.1903 edge=-0.0056 sigma_short=0.001625 sigma_long=0.001215 w=0.3500 p_up=0.4980

Commitment hash
3a9876f3042ad7df007ed96a22449e7f6f69d489f6dc2f9713f96df52dc4879f
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
11:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.528 -2.8% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_A2vnyR7GwK96cyj8DZbz3kL6
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 11:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 11:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.36%
Down 48.64%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1675.7660 sigma=1.6912 z=-0.4884 p_up=0.5136

Commitment hash
25f19a3237f2617f82a2675626e4d34ee6f9f51ba47e1f8bc37a1efaeca44247