Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-14T12:45:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 12:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 13:05 UTC
Open price
$1,668.70
Close price
$1,666.90

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1668.700000 and closed at 1666.900000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.7
Opens
Jun 14 · 12:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 12:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 13:05 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 12:00 ↓ 12:15 ↓ 12:30 ↓ 12:45 ↓ — now 13:00 ↑ 13:15 ↓ 13:30 ↑ 13:45 ↓ 14:00 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 13:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-14T12:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 13:05:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
12:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.494 +0.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_mYpKb1MNDpy4T2Oro7Ak4L2e
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 12:35:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 12:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.67%
Down 50.33%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000032 sigma=0.001297 score=-0.1088 p_up=0.4967

Commitment hash
3fda62f6a82a7c7355d74b54efcf196a0cd4c13b9478a833eb8716e8c7aa85c7
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
12:35:02
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.495 +0.5% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_L5Xdpj9Zw2WguL34VzBAYvMJ
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 12:35:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 12:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.74%
Down 50.26%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.1088 edge=-0.0033 sigma_short=0.000876 sigma_long=0.001199 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4974

Commitment hash
3b62aa0dd4ea8aee722b853ce1974de8f0a0617665cfb0a47bbbf33b7818973f
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
12:35:02
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.552 -5.2% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_05Xg9GbYV9ygTG6yVRELWApQ
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 12:35:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 12:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.56%
Down 47.44%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1675.3145 sigma=1.8476 z=-1.2636 p_up=0.5256

Commitment hash
e99292ebff7bb63b5f4980fb8da60752a36172b634a1f8cdc514bdd66a1093b3