Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-14T12:30:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 12:30 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 14 · 12:50 UTC
Open price
$1,672.99
Close price
$1,668.69

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1672.990000 and closed at 1668.690000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.3
Opens
Jun 14 · 12:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 14 · 12:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 14 · 12:50 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 11:45 ↓ 12:00 ↓ 12:15 ↓ 12:30 ↓ — now 12:45 ↓ 13:00 ↑ 13:15 ↓ 13:30 ↑ 13:45 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-14 12:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-14T12:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 14 · 12:50:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
12:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.478 +2.2% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_4BXNaeEbo16gCpkYwkOy0xjq
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 12:20:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 12:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.91%
Down 51.09%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000118 sigma=0.001349 score=-0.3807 p_up=0.4891

Commitment hash
88601f45e8dc59a11dbdcc904b14a2e22fc106cb563a92f346b85a5de944c342
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 14
12:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.488 +1.2% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_xYnBL4N1wZNysedBw7kZGzPE
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 12:20:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 12:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.4%
Down 50.6%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.3807 edge=-0.0109 sigma_short=0.000915 sigma_long=0.001213 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4940

Commitment hash
0e35029209a5db2fac4a8ea122f6c9444d264ee87d5d524849d10a07d73485a9
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 14
12:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.554 -5.4% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_W4QmKAe0wx4ASLbNwrg8JY5Z
Submitted Jun 14, 2026 · 12:20:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-14 12:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.62%
Down 47.38%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1675.5075 sigma=1.7945 z=-1.3472 p_up=0.5262

Commitment hash
876a0dd83ffc769137e62c3d8abcff4cf3cccb87d46c7cc6c2dc258402d92ef9