Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T01:45:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 01:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 02:05 UTC
Open price
$1,795.69
Close price
$1,792.27

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1795.690000 and closed at 1792.270000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+1.0
Opens
Jun 16 · 01:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 01:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 02:05 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 01:00 ↑ 01:15 ↑ 01:30 ↓ 01:45 ↓ — now 02:00 ↓ 02:15 ↓ 02:30 ↑ 02:45 ↓ 03:00 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 02:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T01:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 02:05:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
01:35:00
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.455 +4.5% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_dnazAerPwl9PcKdlVb97G5lM
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 01:35:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 01:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.71%
Down 52.29%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000682 sigma=0.002969 score=-1.0012 p_up=0.4771

Commitment hash
c0f50a72aaf869508c62e01e8166c613291be928881011e49e2dd42be14efbc3
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
01:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.464 +3.6% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_zgjx25nXwLnpHAEyDOd0yZq1
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 01:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 01:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.17%
Down 51.83%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.0012 edge=-0.0229 sigma_short=0.002400 sigma_long=0.003371 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4817

Commitment hash
0fab06bc27f2b6dc87356f211defdad3dd5ef64c44e2fc20bb0b55a4e6345da9
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
01:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.526 -2.6% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_zq7L80nkoMp4iXMGDEjaK1Zl
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 01:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 01:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.26%
Down 48.74%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1800.8495 sigma=11.2230 z=-0.4490 p_up=0.5126

Commitment hash
95bf4317eeac42bedb5988f80af0bfa27470ebae2db0a8497ae39ce8a0d57346