Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T05:30:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 05:30 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 05:50 UTC
Open price
$1,763.60
Close price
$1,762.95

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1763.600000 and closed at 1762.950000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up49%
51%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
53%
Difference from baseline
+0.7
Opens
Jun 16 · 05:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 05:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 05:50 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 04:45 ↓ 05:00 ↑ 05:15 ↑ 05:30 ↓ — now 05:45 ↓ 06:00 ↑ 06:15 ↑ 06:30 ↑ 06:45 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 05:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T05:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 05:50:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
05:20:02
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.448 +5.2% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_26ObeAJmoYqvh7ZQojMBk8Xp
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 05:20:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 05:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.34%
Down 52.66%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000895 sigma=0.002764 score=-1.4105 p_up=0.4734

Commitment hash
ec1ce72a8a80ea6173a998098254f3411826e07681d69b945c2747de7692e146
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
05:20:02
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.458 +4.2% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_ag9d6j7EwBNgsbKJwJAQ5kqR
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 05:20:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 05:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.87%
Down 52.13%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.4105 edge=-0.0266 sigma_short=0.002251 sigma_long=0.003023 w=0.8000 p_up=0.4787

Commitment hash
722abc1891c519e526cc30d2eb2f9c504b1596791b8490130c693d273aff3e65
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
05:20:02
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.556 -5.6% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_k1qjB4eXVy9jc3lqVnpWL3gm
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 05:20:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 05:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.73%
Down 47.27%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1780.1595 sigma=11.6793 z=-1.5197 p_up=0.5273

Commitment hash
55eb28f4c65479ec0d218a27db06f01fc72a40774bb86c6a7773a80ab3b8e6ba