Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T04:45:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 04:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 05:05 UTC
Open price
$1,763.25
Close price
$1,760.64

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1763.250000 and closed at 1760.640000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.3
Opens
Jun 16 · 04:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 04:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 05:05 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 04:00 ↓ 04:15 ↓ 04:30 ↓ 04:45 ↓ — now 05:00 ↑ 05:15 ↑ 05:30 ↓ 05:45 ↓ 06:00 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 05:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T04:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 05:05:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
04:35:00
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.455 +4.5% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_673nmr8ZwrGOhxkRV1ePEqxB
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 04:35:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 04:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.69%
Down 52.31%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000671 sigma=0.002857 score=-1.0232 p_up=0.4769

Commitment hash
60e88f2aadc195defa0290619440d0d0027c73e968f4991e41347fd31c8f59f1
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
04:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.475 +2.5% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_KNxe1m9koa6GC6rawW628Xz0
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 04:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 04:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.73%
Down 51.27%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-1.0232 edge=-0.0231 sigma_short=0.002903 sigma_long=0.003042 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4873

Commitment hash
3e87fe3e90f6b14f68770c5350bbb992aa42e42eed9b83690504b9067c5b4a8e
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
04:35:00
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.558 -5.8% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_PG178AgpDReXuWdEVeYNrJRd
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 04:35:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 04:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.81%
Down 47.19%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1785.0635 sigma=9.8213 z=-1.6997 p_up=0.5281

Commitment hash
b8f2179fdaddd289a20e494014cbc55890a81b4237bc4588ae89984115952164