Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T04:00:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 04:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 04:20 UTC
Open price
$1,779.16
Close price
$1,777.02

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1779.160000 and closed at 1777.020000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.0
Opens
Jun 16 · 03:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 04:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 04:20 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 03:15 ↑ 03:30 ↑ 03:45 ↓ 04:00 ↓ — now 04:15 ↓ 04:30 ↓ 04:45 ↓ 05:00 ↑ 05:15 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 04:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T04:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 04:20:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
03:50:00
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.475 +2.5% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_G7zbNOMWVvp7iE8EoE9P1vBd
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 03:50:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 04:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.74%
Down 51.26%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000277 sigma=0.002691 score=-0.4481 p_up=0.4874

Commitment hash
7113ee91c9f13eeafbdf3ae548db22f5921dae89a458c0401d027a5ad557b2c7
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
03:50:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.486 +1.4% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_ZdYR0198o8ngH5pnVlXveKJ6
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 03:50:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 04:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.31%
Down 50.69%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.4481 edge=-0.0126 sigma_short=0.002831 sigma_long=0.002981 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4931

Commitment hash
bd26c10595dbc7f2b37f5832e9511b286d0c314b64d4941bd7d6b7526a23a789
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
03:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.541 -4.1% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_BlAyv3kzDQm0tEkWDWqReg9n
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 03:50:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 04:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.0%
Down 48.0%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1787.3270 sigma=8.7185 z=-0.8060 p_up=0.5200

Commitment hash
16e81500ada25e86c5c6bbae7b9bfe7951028c5a238112a76b1d71b3013316f0