Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T04:15:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 04:15 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 04:35 UTC
Open price
$1,777.01
Close price
$1,768.37

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1777.010000 and closed at 1768.370000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.1
Opens
Jun 16 · 04:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 04:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 04:35 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 03:30 ↑ 03:45 ↓ 04:00 ↓ 04:15 ↓ — now 04:30 ↓ 04:45 ↓ 05:00 ↑ 05:15 ↑ 05:30 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 04:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T04:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 04:35:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
04:05:00
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.471 +2.9% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_MLpmeG97DG45SY91olrWdgjb
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 04:05:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 04:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.52%
Down 51.48%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000334 sigma=0.002686 score=-0.5417 p_up=0.4852

Commitment hash
52d53e07ddd45e9d826f03e4bcbbaa77a709cde21129a68bcc0d48fdd14d5c08
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
04:05:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.484 +1.6% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_j65YM2E8odpri4WeoPrz3bWe
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 04:05:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 04:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.18%
Down 50.82%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.5417 edge=-0.0148 sigma_short=0.002683 sigma_long=0.002981 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4918

Commitment hash
51f7432b5cf70beeea96a190fc81292bbe4bb34f2d95ef8c523bfe532d706c7f
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
04:05:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.543 -4.3% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_ax15qGLZwk7ZHqO8wrO7n9zR
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 04:05:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 04:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.09%
Down 47.91%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1786.8010 sigma=8.8766 z=-0.8608 p_up=0.5209

Commitment hash
cb1c39c2806652b9d6f36fdb49d43a18d585958c3031a25e234c3b269232960d