Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T03:45:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 03:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 04:05 UTC
Open price
$1,780.30
Close price
$1,779.16

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1780.300000 and closed at 1779.160000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.2
Opens
Jun 16 · 03:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 03:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 04:05 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 03:00 ↑ 03:15 ↑ 03:30 ↑ 03:45 ↓ — now 04:00 ↓ 04:15 ↓ 04:30 ↓ 04:45 ↓ 05:00 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 04:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T03:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 04:05:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
03:35:00
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.463 +3.7% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_rQLBEm5WoP72HpWED9za01Y4
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 03:35:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 03:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.11%
Down 51.89%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000458 sigma=0.002698 score=-0.7400 p_up=0.4811

Commitment hash
354d3a95596db25cc632d7b12133aa13159ea672e11b1c986cd1279836cff6e2
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
03:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.479 +2.1% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_kB1Mx3X5o4zgCmdJV4nQbZN0
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 03:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 03:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.96%
Down 51.04%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.7400 edge=-0.0189 sigma_short=0.002841 sigma_long=0.002967 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4896

Commitment hash
e8815677ee43dc71234d71b2f2fd607d695087a4e5ba43579aa6d378adffb1ad
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
03:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.550 -5.0% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_BE2kXa7Qo6ngH1pNoy18Alen
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 03:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 03:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.45%
Down 47.55%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1787.9925 sigma=8.6646 z=-1.1452 p_up=0.5245

Commitment hash
450700cd850dd1153b3c84594f150e26750a1bfde732c92a2852d3f847f0bf23