Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T11:00:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 11:00 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 11:20 UTC
Open price
$1,793.95
Close price
$1,794.93

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1793.950000 and closed at 1794.930000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.4
Opens
Jun 16 · 10:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 11:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 11:20 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 10:15 ↑ 10:30 ↓ 10:45 ↓ 11:00 ↑ — now 11:15 ↓ 11:30 ↑ 11:45 ↑ 12:00 ↑ 12:15 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 11:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T11:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 11:20:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
10:50:02
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.447 +5.3% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_40Q536YODN09HP1OwRWvqpr8
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 10:50:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 11:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.72%
Down 47.28%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.001027 sigma=0.002959 score=1.5134 p_up=0.5272

Commitment hash
61e5db7dd6e259aae63c4e934f79ae02eaa8a44ae6aee2b3acfa7b99eb473c84
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
10:50:02
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.481 +1.9% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_W4QmKAe0wx4AS4bYwrg8JY5Z
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 10:50:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 11:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.95%
Down 49.05%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=1.5134 edge=0.0272 sigma_short=0.003964 sigma_long=0.002900 w=0.3500 p_up=0.5095

Commitment hash
1f32fd3fc3ee441ee1b6f3f946e27afacf753574882771e19da0b62a63672dc1
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
10:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.551 -5.1% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_4BXNaeEbo16gCJklwkOy0xjq
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 10:50:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 11:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.52%
Down 52.48%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1781.9420 sigma=12.6228 z=1.1755 p_up=0.4752

Commitment hash
3d8a607d19e3168933ddc540c1310704273e26d01b45cfb139c8b6cf24181172