Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T13:15:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 13:15 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 13:35 UTC
Open price
$1,802.79
Close price
$1,801.90

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1802.790000 and closed at 1801.900000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.4
Opens
Jun 16 · 13:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 13:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 13:35 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 12:30 ↓ 12:45 ↓ 13:00 ↓ 13:15 ↓ — now 13:30 ↑ 13:45 ↓ 14:00 ↓ 14:15 ↓ 14:30 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 13:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T13:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 13:35:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
13:05:01
 Scored ↓ Down 53% 0.446 +5.4% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_ax15qGLZwk7ZHybpwrO7n9zR
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 13:05:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 13:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.24%
Down 52.76%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1797.6055 sigma=10.8727 z=1.5888 p_up=0.4724

Commitment hash
0ec642f3dd01c9196724cd9e5f6824361af72f83ef2c14b12c8de2054327ac07
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
13:05:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.529 -2.9% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_j65YM2E8odpridXLoPrz3bWe
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 13:05:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 13:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.44%
Down 48.56%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=1.3571 edge=0.0263 sigma_short=0.002839 sigma_long=0.002763 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5144

Commitment hash
0e59d5505bcdc0dc6d5111b79e709d3e03967de8a0d1114fe3c3cf7d643c3945
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
13:05:00
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.554 -5.4% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_MLpmeG97DG45S4vJolrWdgjb
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 13:05:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 13:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.63%
Down 47.37%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.001085 sigma=0.003486 score=1.3571 p_up=0.5263

Commitment hash
97648ffbf4d6d5cb3ca87301a7fbc2a31084b152c86b274a4fd0797b91d6c040