Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T14:00:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 14:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 14:20 UTC
Open price
$1,797.86
Close price
$1,795.95

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1797.860000 and closed at 1795.950000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
50%
Difference from baseline
+0.3
Opens
Jun 16 · 13:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 14:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 14:20 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 13:15 ↓ 13:30 ↑ 13:45 ↓ 14:00 ↓ — now 14:15 ↓ 14:30 ↑ 14:45 ↑ 15:00 ↑ 15:15 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 14:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T14:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 14:20:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
13:50:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.476 +2.4% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_904kZMgdDE6gCP7EoBnQaqEe
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 13:50:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 14:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.77%
Down 51.23%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1800.6610 sigma=8.8327 z=0.4346 p_up=0.4877

Commitment hash
52833c4e469a2ef08bde0d48e27fb940e89f94b4df994c76a13684c0b52c7bfa
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
13:50:02
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.502 -0.2% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_G7zbNOMWVvp7idgRoE9P1vBd
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 13:50:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 14:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.08%
Down 49.92%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.0491 edge=0.0015 sigma_short=0.003554 sigma_long=0.002966 w=0.5500 p_up=0.5008

Commitment hash
aa5c86b3f43b0c02e71b83fbafd3375c447ba9cb0eb19630e4661a20e0a191b6
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
13:50:02
 Scored ↑ Up 50% 0.503 -0.3% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_l4L0eAk2wAAgTdg4wg3aqryB
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 13:50:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 14:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.15%
Down 49.85%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000037 sigma=0.003289 score=0.0491 p_up=0.5015

Commitment hash
6945ce8abf3703ddc4d59c0f988d9224d725ef6b72aec8c97b70f1c9840363ea