Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T14:15:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 14:15 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 14:35 UTC
Open price
$1,795.95
Close price
$1,772.10

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1795.950000 and closed at 1772.100000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
50%
Difference from baseline
+0.1
Opens
Jun 16 · 14:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 14:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 14:35 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 13:30 ↑ 13:45 ↓ 14:00 ↓ 14:15 ↓ — now 14:30 ↑ 14:45 ↑ 15:00 ↑ 15:15 ↓ 15:30 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 14:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T14:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 14:35:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
14:05:02
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.494 +0.6% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_ZdYR0198o8ngHAdzVlXveKJ6
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 14:05:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 14:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.68%
Down 50.32%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000082 sigma=0.003379 score=-0.1060 p_up=0.4968

Commitment hash
76ce033056bc2e9f2188a00bec01e6a958da0fcb34a5d514f0c5274e37f0a6e2
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
14:05:03
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.497 +0.3% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_MLpmeG97DG45S4jJolrWdgjb
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 14:05:03 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 14:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.83%
Down 50.17%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.1060 edge=-0.0032 sigma_short=0.003759 sigma_long=0.003028 w=0.5500 p_up=0.4983

Commitment hash
1ddba69d3480f0d969d7eeb336136fb21f57a88377e0e5865b276be30e83de5e
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
14:05:02
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.517 -1.7% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_A2vnyR7GwK96cK9xDZbz3kL6
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 14:05:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 14:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 50.83%
Down 49.17%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1800.3935 sigma=8.8318 z=-0.2846 p_up=0.5083

Commitment hash
ee4cf8b36d0ee320dabef69301f119d43513ff7ecf9f39b3a84e26f35f41c2b2