Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T15:30:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 15:30 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 15:50 UTC
Open price
$1,779.88
Close price
$1,779.54

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1779.880000 and closed at 1779.540000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.2
Opens
Jun 16 · 15:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 15:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 15:50 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 14:45 ↑ 15:00 ↑ 15:15 ↓ 15:30 ↓ — now 15:45 ↑ 16:00 ↓ 16:15 ↑ 16:30 ↑ 16:45 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 15:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T15:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 15:50:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
15:20:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.477 +2.3% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_K0YXjLbzom6xCyjpw3qMl598
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 15:20:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 15:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.82%
Down 51.18%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000409 sigma=0.004308 score=-0.4138 p_up=0.4882

Commitment hash
7cb58cb4333035fdb84b5e2f0f318e50b67a54eb0e99a33cf0f3c398b4781248
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
15:20:02
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.492 +0.8% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_26ObeAJmoYqvhmzWojMBk8Xp
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 15:20:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 15:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.59%
Down 50.41%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.4138 edge=-0.0118 sigma_short=0.004892 sigma_long=0.003660 w=0.3500 p_up=0.4959

Commitment hash
298ebcc4c0a3f217da09d585ed11609320af164a0fdcd157ab00fae19d7005d5
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
15:20:02
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.547 -4.7% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_BzW1LX5PDjz5CvgrDOKAlqGM
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 15:20:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 15:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.29%
Down 47.71%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1797.9035 sigma=12.0621 z=-1.0026 p_up=0.5229

Commitment hash
29472a9140ce77663bac16266d66723da67ee3457675661afad3054f0da0cc0f