Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T16:00:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 16:00 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 16:20 UTC
Open price
$1,782.43
Close price
$1,777.86

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1782.430000 and closed at 1777.860000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.3
Opens
Jun 16 · 15:45 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 16:00 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 16:20 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 15:15 ↓ 15:30 ↓ 15:45 ↑ 16:00 ↓ — now 16:15 ↑ 16:30 ↑ 16:45 ↓ 17:00 ↑ 17:15 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 16:20 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T16:00:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 16:20:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
15:50:00
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.476 +2.4% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_apB6lzPrV3mgtYy4oXAeKd4v
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 15:50:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 16:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.79%
Down 51.21%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000424 sigma=0.004342 score=-0.4261 p_up=0.4879

Commitment hash
f85ece79ee4c71519d279a9709d45f74a28830af81b9ab31fb67dfb980298e26
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
15:50:01
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.492 +0.8% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_4BXNaeEbo16gCJepwkOy0xjq
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 15:50:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 16:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.58%
Down 50.42%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.4261 edge=-0.0121 sigma_short=0.004666 sigma_long=0.003703 w=0.3500 p_up=0.4958

Commitment hash
bf21c16b88814cabea59a7968f4204bfcfe696c62e65bf782530ff76dcd22fff
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
15:50:01
 Scored ↑ Up 53% 0.552 -5.2% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_40Q536YODN09HPj4wRWvqpr8
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 15:50:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 16:00 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.54%
Down 47.46%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1796.0480 sigma=13.2266 z=-1.2481 p_up=0.5254

Commitment hash
c3deb7bc6ff213f9a03cb2471c885ee1247d60e024aed38dd340949edaa764e0