Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T16:45:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 16:45 UTC

Final outcome
↓
Down
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 17:05 UTC
Open price
$1,779.49
Close price
$1,777.89

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1779.490000 and closed at 1777.890000, so this market resolved down.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.2
Opens
Jun 16 · 16:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 16:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 17:05 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 16:00 ↓ 16:15 ↑ 16:30 ↑ 16:45 ↓ — now 17:00 ↑ 17:15 ↑ 17:30 ↑ 17:45 ↑ 18:00 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 17:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T16:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 17:05:02 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
16:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.473 +2.7% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_26ObeAJmoYqvhmLWojMBk8Xp
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 16:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 16:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.65%
Down 51.35%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000486 sigma=0.004379 score=-0.4832 p_up=0.4865

Commitment hash
e9b358b66ef948ea7ead724a82862f8fb6db9d6b50990676ff5f9414f0adb939
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
16:35:01
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.491 +0.9% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_ag9d6j7EwBNgs5LdwJAQ5kqR
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 16:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 16:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.53%
Down 50.47%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.4832 edge=-0.0135 sigma_short=0.004669 sigma_long=0.003719 w=0.3500 p_up=0.4953

Commitment hash
275674c11b54074b262f0a92e363da085b4eeb09f8a6dc0a0cbe102c2d6df9c1
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
16:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.547 -4.7% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_k1qjB4eXVy9jc7bZVnpWL3gm
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 16:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 16:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.29%
Down 47.71%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1793.9145 sigma=14.4744 z=-1.0062 p_up=0.5229

Commitment hash
0387d2bca1b2da22653b587e94916fe0bf143ee2e54604ae2111dc54c2fbc71d