Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T16:15:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 16:15 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 16:35 UTC
Open price
$1,777.87
Close price
$1,779.35

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1777.870000 and closed at 1779.350000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up50%
50%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.3
Opens
Jun 16 · 16:00 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 16:15 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 16:35 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 15:30 ↓ 15:45 ↑ 16:00 ↓ 16:15 ↑ — now 16:30 ↑ 16:45 ↓ 17:00 ↑ 17:15 ↑ 17:30 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 16:35 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T16:15:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 16:35:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
16:05:02
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.456 +4.4% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_ZrAQgKBlDJnJHRpKD3j6Wdq1
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 16:05:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 16:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.24%
Down 47.76%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1795.4725 sigma=13.5517 z=-0.9617 p_up=0.5224

Commitment hash
c9809497b81905487fea25528d1d9ff5a61e13ac9020a86bf0a28e187f3f3800
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
16:05:03
 Scored ↓ Down 50% 0.507 -0.7% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_mYpKb1MNDpy4T318o7Ak4L2e
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 16:05:03 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 16:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.63%
Down 50.37%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=-0.3673 edge=-0.0105 sigma_short=0.004746 sigma_long=0.003708 w=0.3500 p_up=0.4963

Commitment hash
2475c0029289c96c8ec92068e2b8b3f9701522fd6e7d0da02026b6468981c51b
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
16:05:02
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.521 -2.1% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_xYnBL4N1wZNysK0bw7kZGzPE
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 16:05:02 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 16:15 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 48.95%
Down 51.05%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=-0.000368 sigma=0.004362 score=-0.3673 p_up=0.4895

Commitment hash
7b131936e8acb0556367575b743a551f9e92e60372d3ac8b49d6cf7cd9948c65