Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T21:30:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 21:30 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 21:50 UTC
Open price
$1,794.09
Close price
$1,794.86

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1794.090000 and closed at 1794.860000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
52%
Difference from baseline
+0.6
Opens
Jun 16 · 21:15 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 21:30 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 21:50 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 20:45 ↓ 21:00 ↑ 21:15 ↓ 21:30 ↑ — now 21:45 ↑ 22:00 ↑ 22:15 ↓ 22:30 ↓ 22:45 ↑
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 21:50 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T21:30:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 21:50:00 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
21:20:00
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.456 +4.4% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_9EjpnQAKwO3OFj8Mw5zX1eW6
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 21:20:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 21:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 52.27%
Down 47.73%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000589 sigma=0.002595 score=0.9895 p_up=0.5227

Commitment hash
12aeaa8592810624fd9691044fefa46f653d70d6251f74936b2ab2852575cb65
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
21:20:01
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.464 +3.6% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_Q6El9GNLw7xgsmdlVRbZJ37v
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 21:20:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 21:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.82%
Down 48.18%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.9895 edge=0.0227 sigma_short=0.002060 sigma_long=0.003556 w=0.8000 p_up=0.5182

Commitment hash
e9bc6c7d88fe22292c84a95121011067c8caba3fcb66b7a17427cb8672b4674e
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
21:20:01
 Scored ↓ Down 52% 0.545 -4.5% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_j2yMmAnQo01giOKjw1W4pqGx
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 21:20:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 21:30 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 47.81%
Down 52.19%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1791.9140 sigma=8.0266 z=0.9302 p_up=0.4781

Commitment hash
312409cca849057fbdb1dcfcd0c2bdeb8ab4854bf12654834dd13e202517e5e4