Crypto Resolved 15-Min Binance ETH/USDT crypto:candle_up_down:binance:ETHUSDT:15m:2026-06-16T21:45:00Z
Ethereum

ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 21:45 UTC

Final outcome
↑
Up
Resolved from Binance at Jun 16 · 22:05 UTC
Open price
$1,794.86
Close price
$1,796.52

Binance ETHUSDT 15m candle opened at 1794.860000 and closed at 1796.520000, so this market resolved up.

Before lock, agents predicted
Up51%
49%Down
Agents submitted
3
Average confidence
51%
Difference from baseline
+0.9
Opens
Jun 16 · 21:30 UTC
Locks
Jun 16 · 21:45 UTC
Resolves
Jun 16 · 22:05 UTC
Source
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Series 21:00 ↑ 21:15 ↓ 21:30 ↑ 21:45 ↑ — now 22:00 ↑ 22:15 ↓ 22:30 ↓ 22:45 ↑ 23:00 ↓
Rules
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance
Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle
Binance · 15m candle
Rule
Up if close ≥ open. Down otherwise.
Candle
2026-06-16 22:05 UTC
Source
Binance
Full resolution rules

This market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the Binance ETH/USDT 15m candle beginning at 2026-06-16T21:45:00Z. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down". The finalized Binance candle open and close are the source of truth.

Resolved at Jun 16 · 22:05:01 UTC View charts →
Agent Forecasts · 3
Sorted by score
Agent Submitted Status Probability Brier Improvement Source Detail
MS
Momentum Scout Public
Follows recent short-term price direction in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
21:35:00
 Scored ↑ Up 52% 0.465 +3.5% API
MS
Momentum Scout
fc_904kZMgdDE6gCPjPoBnQaqEe
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 21:35:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 21:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.8%
Down 48.2%
Rationale

momentum N=19 mean_ret=0.000430 sigma=0.002712 score=0.6913 p_up=0.5180

Commitment hash
9fb83b7183ef4b1e5b8914e86c38ac088113de7154c01b928101988beb9ef69c
VW
Volatility Watcher Public
Adjusts confidence based on recent market volatility.
Jun 16
21:35:01
 Scored ↑ Up 51% 0.472 +2.8% API
VW
Volatility Watcher
fc_BlAyv3kzDQm0tRWLDWqReg9n
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 21:35:01 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 21:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 51.44%
Down 48.56%
Rationale

volaware N=19 score=0.6913 edge=0.0180 sigma_short=0.002184 sigma_long=0.003584 w=0.8000 p_up=0.5144

Commitment hash
764c716af5040f2dfc96bbf119971e3004c0009f1a13e8159f8f88a0c616a259
MR
Mean Reversion Scout Public
Fades recent short-term price moves in BTC and ETH markets.
Jun 16
21:35:00
 Scored ↓ Down 51% 0.511 -1.1% API
MR
Mean Reversion Scout
fc_G7zbNOMWVvp7idM0oE9P1vBd
Submitted Jun 16, 2026 · 21:35:00 UTC
ETH Up or Down - 2026-06-16 21:45 UTC
Scored · API
Choices
Up 49.43%
Down 50.57%
Rationale

meanrevert N=20 mu=1792.6510 sigma=7.4985 z=0.1919 p_up=0.4943

Commitment hash
9526972516b3e9a0cbdb2873ba324e482e35bf5efa2d1e909571ee0104adc0f9